The perils of future-gazing

Talking about the future leaves you open to all kinds of challenge, not to mention fun-poking. All future-gazing attempts are wrong in some respect, and some are so off-base as to be hilarious.

Geoffrey Hoyle’s 1972 children’s book Living in the Future predicted that we’d all be wearing jumpsuits by now. He also thought we’d have more leisure time – and the less said about that the better. On the other hand, he did successfully predict video phones and online shopping. More about this curious book can be found in a BBC article here.

French artist Villemard has provided the perfect opener for my presentations about this project, with his visions of the year 2000 produced between 1899 and 1910. Again there is a mixture of weirdness and dodgy fashions among which are a few spot-on predictions, not to mention things we wish would happen (who wouldn’t want monorails and flying policemen?).

Exactly the same can be said of this 1970s vision of the future: terrifying fashions, startlingly familiar architecture, cool personal flying machines.

So why would anyone do it? I’ve discovered that anyone involved in futures work tends to have a well-rehearsed answer to this. And although I’m relatively new to futures work, a layman really, here’s mine:

Scenario planning provides a structured way in which to look at the future. Without this we – our organisations – are subject to whims and prey to every sensationalist headline that crosses the desks of our senior managers. To my mind, its strength lies in its breadth. It is a process that doesn’t consider different trends in isolation (MOOCs spring to mind here) but looks at how different changes will work together at the national and even global level. Of course with so many variables involved we’ll inevitably get it wrong sometimes, but I believe the discipline of systems-thinking it engenders makes it worthwhile.

It also holds up the mirror to the present. Here are some ways the future could go- how do you feel about this? What are we and our partners and stakeholders doing to further any particular future, either purposely or inadvertently? This proved useful in so many ways within this project; for UNITE’s board in articulating and challenging its most fundamental assumptions, and for the students we worked with who fought strongly for a rounded student experience once they saw it could be under threat.

So future-gazing can be an intensely practical activity, despite its dire track record on the sartorial front. It holds up a vision to which people respond, either positively or negatively, and automatically this creates action, it creates change.

Next week we’ll be blogging extended material from our scenarios; lots of it will be wrong, but that’s ok and now you know why. And besides, in the words of John Feffer, ‘being a futurologist means never having to say you’re sorry’.

Jenny Shaw

Putting together our scenario matrix

Over the last two days we’ve written about the two areas of uncertainty on which we built the project’s scenario matrix: economic and societal.

These were the same two axes used to construct the University Alliance’s university_vision scenario matrix, making it easy to read between the two. However the focus of this project was more specific. We were looking at the way in which these uncertainties would make a difference to the way in which students would live and learn in the future.

The scenario matrix produces four permutations of the two uncertainties:

• Return to economic growth and co-operative, collaborative society: Living Well
• Sustained economic stagnation and co-operative, collaborative society: Community Centre
• Sustained economic stagnation and competitive, individualistic society: Digital Islands
• Return to economic growth and competitive, individualistic society: whatiwant.com

Using this matrix, the team developed four scenarios that set out:

• what the world might look like in 20 years and how it differs from today;
• the key events and developments along the path from 2013 to 2033;
• what higher education looks like in the future;
• what students want from HE and what kind of experience they are looking for;
• the implications for student accommodation;

There are summaries of each scenario within the project report, but over the next week we will be posting some previously unpublished extended descriptions and timelines.

How society affects higher education

Yesterday we wrote about the impact that the state of the UK’s economy could have on its higher education system, exploring this as an area of uncertainty in our scenario planning process. Today we’re looking at social trends, in particular the dominant ethos in society. This is perhaps less obviously related to the higher education sector than economic conditions, nonetheless it has the power to influence all aspects of life in the UK, including the choices made by applicants, the way in which universities conduct their business, and the expectations that employers have of graduates.

The two extremes of this axis are:

• Competitive, individualistic society
• Co-operative, collaborative society

Competitive, individualistic society

Consumers are highly demanding and businesses have to innovate constantly in order to maintain competitive advantage. People work long hours to get ahead. Inequality has increased and social mobility is difficult, with many families requiring two incomes just to keep their head above water. Education is the route to personal success and students invest significantly, demanding quality in all aspects of the university experience. Global brands dominate the market.

In such a society, we can expect a much higher level of competition between universities for students, and between students for academic and employment success. This is a society in which social divisions are entrenched, so we could expect a further stratification of the UK HE sector – though perhaps with a greater focus on widening participation and social mobility in order to compensate. Student lifestyles are likely to be as marketised as the sector itself, with students striving for the best accommodation they or their families can afford, especially where they see added value and an increased chance of success. However, inevitably, there will need to be a wide range of accommodation and this may also become stratified.

Co-operative, collaborative society

Quality of life is regarded as more important than standard of living, and consumption is reduced. Communities are important and local brands are favoured. Governments and businesses follow the lead of consumers who are concerned about equality, sustainability and equity. Education is important for many reasons, ranging from being a rite of passage to being the first step in long-term relationships with employers.

A society such as this is likely to embrace the ideals of a liberal education that creates a rounded citizen, and the value of higher education will not be measured purely in terms of economic benefit. As such, university will be a time to explore and develop at any stage in life, and a true rite of passage for school leavers. Co-curricular and extra-curricular activities will be valued in and of themselves. The traditional ‘halls’ experience is likely to be favoured by many in a society such as this, with social and pastoral programmes being the norm again. Perhaps a Residence Life approach would be a modern alternative. We may even see a return to the catered hall – or alternatively, facilitated opportunities for cooking together.

So we have our two areas of uncertainty, and tomorrow we’ll look at how these come together to form our scenario matrix.

Simon Hooton and Jenny Shaw

How will economic conditions affect student living and learning?

We constructed the scenario matrix for this project using two areas of uncertainty that the team believed, based on their knowledge and background research, would have the most significant impact on the HE sector over the coming 20 years. These were Economic and Societal. These are the same uncertainties used for university_vision and so we were able to draw on the extensive consultation carried out for this other project.

This article focuses on economic uncertainty and the ways in which it could affect the sector. This is probably the more obvious of the two uncertainties.

Uncertainty axes are constructed by posing two opposite situations and creating a credible narrative for each. In this case we used:

• Sustained economic stagnation
• Return to economic growth

Sustained economic stagnation

The global economy remains fragile and any growth is patchy and restricted to a few countries. The poor fiscal situation in Europe and the US has remained, resulting in lower confidence, lower consumption and higher unemployment. The UK and Europe have endured a long recession and US financial markets, exposed to Europe’s sovereign debt, have suffered badly. Governments are naturally inclined towards protectionism but need to trade in some goods and services. Social tensions have increased and relationships between different ethnic groups are difficult. Many societies are unwelcoming to outsiders.

Difficult economic conditions are likely to result in students being more instrumental about higher education. We can, arguably, see recent intakes of students veering towards courses that are more clearly linked to employment. Over time, this could also result in a demand for more cost-effective ways of attaining a degree – perhaps the use of online or blended learning, and shorter, more intensive study patterns.

Sustained economic decline could prompt a trend towards staying in the parental home while studying. Until now we haven’t seen this trend as a result of the economic crisis, but if the economy does not recover, family resources are likely to come under further pressure and we could reach that elusive tipping point. Less drastically, it could drive demand towards budget accommodation with lower service levels – with obvious consequences for the quality of the student experience.

Return to economic growth

The UK and global economies have returned to growth supported by innovation and investment. Markets are open and regulation is laissez-faire. Consumer spending is increasing as levels of personal debt reduce, but consumers are careful; the recovery has been painful and the years of austerity are not forgotten. Most sectors are growing and the job market is reliant on high-level skills that enhance the competitiveness and productivity of each business and economic bloc. Education is valued and domestic student numbers, which have fallen in recent years, are on the rise. Competition between UK universities for international students – particularly from the emerging economies – is fierce.

A return to economic growth in the UK means a greater demand for graduate skills and a greater ability for both the state and the individual to invest in HE, both teaching and research. This is likely to mean a greater proportion of the population pursing some form of higher education, and a likely rise in postgraduate study.

Greater household affluence also frees up students and their parents to invest in the wider student experience, including student living and co-curricular activities. However, the type of student experience they pursue will depend in part upon the prevailing ethos in society.

Tomorrow’s article explores this second area of uncertainty, and how the two axes come together to form the scenario matrix for this project.

Simon Hooton and Jenny Shaw

How we created our scenarios

Some scenarios are created through an extensive interview and workshop programme with key stakeholders; others draw on existing research materials. This exercise is an example of the latter, though drawing on the pre-existing interview and workshop activity of University Alliance carried out for the university_vision project. Ash Future, UNITE and University Alliance worked together to create the scenarios. There were 6 steps in the process, designed to explore how drivers of change operating in the contextual environment (the wider world) could affect the higher education sector and demand for student accommodation in the future.

Step 1: desk research to identify the long run trends that will shape the development of UK society, the business environment and higher education over the next 20 years.

Step 2: group discussion to identify: the most significant trends for the HE sector and for demand for student accommodation over the next 20 years; what the key uncertainties associated with the significant trends are and how they might develop over time; options for the final scenario matrix.

Step 3: more desk research to test the key uncertainties further and finalise the matrix.

Step 4: create scenario stories that explore how the market might develop under
the different conditions and what the consequences might be for universities and
students, students’ housing needs and UNITE.

Step 5: create a possible typology of universities in 2034 which suggests different
market segments for the HE sector in the UK.

Step 6: use the scenarios to create a range of indicators to help partners to understand the real-life implications of the scenarios

In writing the scenarios, we have drawn on:

• ‘Research into the Future of International Student Markets’, an unpublished Ash Futures report for UNITE;

• additional desk research into the long-run trends affecting the UK and
International markets for higher education;

• a workshop with student union officers from four different universities;

• University_Vision, the recent scenario planning project carried out by University Alliance.
Tomorrow we will share the rationale for the uncertainties set out in our scenario matrix, and how these have the power to affect the HE sector over the coming 20 years.

Simon Hooton and Jenny Shaw

Alternative scenarios

Paul Greatrix, aka Registrarism, has reblogged his review of the HE sector since the Robbins Review and his predictions for the future. His scenarios are a lot funnier than ours. http://registrarism.wordpress.com/2013/12/09/the-imperfect-university-sectoral-change-since-robbins-and-into-the-future/

Jenny Shaw

The scenario planning process

There has been a lot of interest in how we went about constructing the scenarios for the project. Below we share the general process we followed and the principles we applied.

Scenario planning is a flexible process that can be tailored to different circumstances and different needs. While there is no definitive scenario process, most exercises fit within a four stage structure.

Stage One: Identification and analysis of change drivers

Stage Two: Identification of predetermined elements and critical uncertainties

Stage Three: Construction of the scenario matrix

Stage Four: Construction of the scenario narratives

Stage One: Identification and analysis of change drivers

Change drivers are factors which are shaping the future contextual environment. Some change drivers are highly visible now, but others are less so. While it may be possible to determine the effects of change drivers on the present and near future, it can be more difficult to determine their effects in the medium to long term.

It is, therefore, important during this stage of the scenario process to identify a broad range of drivers and to consider which will be most important in the future rather than to focus solely on which are most important now.

Typically at this stage, therefore, drivers are prioritised according to their future importance to or impact on the policy area.

Stage Two: Identification of predetermined elements and critical uncertainties

Once drivers have been prioritised, the next step is to consider how the important ones might play out in the future. In some case, drivers will be predetermined elements that is, their outcome will be quite clear and in other cases drivers will have uncertain outcomes. It is important during this stage of the scenario process to identify and characterise both types of outcome. For uncertain drivers, it is essential at this stage to identify the nature of the uncertainty and the range of possible outcomes. It is also important to explore the dynamic interplay between drivers over time. The critical output from this stage is a number of ‘axes of uncertainty’ which describe the range of uncertainties for the future, together with the range of possible outcomes. The uncertainties are used to define the scenario space and to shape narrative production; predetermined elements define strategic issues that need to be addressed across all the scenarios.

Stage Three: Construction of the scenario matrix

The scenario matrix is a 2×2 schematic that defines the main parameters of the

scenarios. It is constructed by juxtaposing the two axes of uncertainty that reflect the most important uncertainties, offer the most insight or provide the most intriguing glimpse of the future. Matrix construction is an art rather than a science and the final 2×2 is often decided through negotiation, intuition and testing.

Stage Four: Construction of the scenario narratives

The scenario narratives are constructed within the logical framework provided by the scenario matrix. The narratives draw on all the material in stages one and two and also on wider research. They can either describe ‘end states’ what the world looks like in the future, without any sense of how that future evolved or ‘timelines’ a description of how the future has evolved from the present day. The narratives should present the perspectives of different stakeholders in order to provide a sense of the different priorities and issues that exist in each future.

In our next blog post we will share how we went about constructing the scenarios for the Living and Learning in 2034 project.

Simon Hooton, Alister Wilson & Jenny Shaw

Scenario Planning – What’s it all about?

Scenarios are widely used by businesses, government and universities to inform strategy and policy development. They can be done on a large or small scale, as part of a wider body of work or as a discrete exercise, as a way of gathering expert opinion from external bodies and individuals, or as a method to develop internal thinking.

In government, for example, the UK Foresight Programme runs large scale exercises looking at issues facing the UK economy in the future and uses scenarios as a key part of the process. Foresight’s current project on The Future of Demographic Change is exploring how a range of issues – such as pensions, healthcare and education provision – will change in the future.

Several organisations have recently produced scenarios for the future of higher education. Some of these are universities who are using the process to inform their strategic planning; others are organisations such as University Alliance, Universities UK and OECD who are using scenarios to stimulate debate about the future of the sector. In addition, consultancies and think tanks continue to produce reports on the future of higher education that look at the impact of long run drivers on the sector (see, for example, University of the Future and An Avalanche is Coming).

The next 20 years or so will bring profound changes in the way we live our lives, manage our businesses and plan for our communities. The causes of these changes, such as climate change, population growth, resource depletion and biodiversity loss, will provide serious challenges and some opportunities – both globally and locally.

Scenarios are not designed to predict particular outcomes, but to set out alternative ways in which the future could unfold. This helps to ensure our views on the future are well informed and grounded in an understanding of what is driving change.

Over the next week we’ll post further information about how the scenarios were put together for Living and Learning 2034, followed by an extended narrative for each of the project’s scenarios in the following week.

Simon Hooton and Jenny Shaw

Technological Futures

From the middle of next week we’re going to start posting extended content from the project, including a projected timeline of change in each scenario.

But in the meantime I wanted to share this article from Times Higher on four areas of technology that could transform universities. It’s very reassuring to see how closely this mirrors our own predictions.

http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/news/bett-show-four-areas-of-technology-that-could-transform-universities/2011070.article

Review of the launch

The fabulous Martin Hughes who worked on the project with us gives a run-down of the launch event on his blog: http://theuniversityblog.co.uk/2014/02/12/hefutures/

Jenny